Should ARM Borrowers Refinance or Stand Pat?(May 31, 2006) -- Home owners who took out adjustable-rate mortgages are facing big payment increases. But refinancing may not be the best solution, experts say.
ARMs made up 42 percent of all new home mortgages in 2005, up from 14 percent in 2003, according to LoanPerformance, a San Francisco-based research outfit.
As one example of how payments have increased, the starting rate on a 3/1 ARM — a loan with a fixed rate for three years — has risen to 6.17 percent from 3.80 percent in 2003. That translates into a $220-per-month increase.
But before they refinance to lower their payments, ARM borrowers should consider standing pat. If the annual adjustment is capped at 2 percent, the rate will rise to 5.8 percent in the first year — that's less than a 30-year fixed rate right now.
Plus, refinancing costs are high, says Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH Associates, which tracks the mortgage industry.And by the time another year rolls around, rates could go back down.
Gumbinger is among those who believe the Fed’s next move will be to push rates back down to jumpstart a slowing economy.
Source: SmartMoney, Reshma Kapadia (06/01/2006)
Lots of interesting stuff in there: I'm left wondering if all ARMs are capped at 2%. Also, are second mortgages counted in the 42% of all new home loans in 2005 that were ARMs? Mr. Gumbinger is the first person I've seen who feels that rates will be reduced any time soon.
Wednesday, May 31, 2006
Slighted Markets Look for Gains
Housing Analyst Says the Heartland's the Next Winner(May 30, 2006) --
A new statistical analysis of housing price cycles in 100 major metropolitan areas suggests that real estate action is shifting to areas that didn’t enjoy the recent housing boom.
Christopher L. Cagan, director of research and analytics for First American Real Estate Solutions, examined historical housing price movements and concluded that middle America markets like Columbus, Ohio; Indianapolis; Houston; San Antonio; Memphis, Tenn.; Atlanta; Cincinnati; Des Moines, Iowa; and Louisville, Ky., are due for above-average price increases and home building because of expanding employment bases and moderate housing prices.
Cagan also doesn’t believe what he calls the shooting stars of housing booms like most of California, Florida, Washington, D.C., New York City, or Boston are going to incinerate. He simply believes appreciation rates will dwindle to the low single digits or go flat for awhile as incomes catch up.
His bottom line: Figure out where your community is in the cycle and adapt.
Source: Washington Post Writers Group, Kenneth R. Harney (05/28/06)
A new statistical analysis of housing price cycles in 100 major metropolitan areas suggests that real estate action is shifting to areas that didn’t enjoy the recent housing boom.
Christopher L. Cagan, director of research and analytics for First American Real Estate Solutions, examined historical housing price movements and concluded that middle America markets like Columbus, Ohio; Indianapolis; Houston; San Antonio; Memphis, Tenn.; Atlanta; Cincinnati; Des Moines, Iowa; and Louisville, Ky., are due for above-average price increases and home building because of expanding employment bases and moderate housing prices.
Cagan also doesn’t believe what he calls the shooting stars of housing booms like most of California, Florida, Washington, D.C., New York City, or Boston are going to incinerate. He simply believes appreciation rates will dwindle to the low single digits or go flat for awhile as incomes catch up.
His bottom line: Figure out where your community is in the cycle and adapt.
Source: Washington Post Writers Group, Kenneth R. Harney (05/28/06)
Friday, May 26, 2006
Most Affordable Housing Markets
According to CNN.com. Louisville doesn't appear to have been part of the research. The only Kentucky area rated is Northern Kentucky/Greater Cincinnati.
Land Sale to be "Studied" After the "Fact"
I'm as confused as the next guy on this story from today's C-J which leaves more questions than answers regarding an aparent land sale in Frankfort. According to the article, a veterinarian in Frankfort recently purchased land from a church (including the church itself) for $450,000 with the intention of putting an animal hospital on the land. When her zoning change couldn't be secured, she appears to have sold the land seven weeks later to The Kentucky Retirement Systems, an entity that invests funds & administers benefits to employees & retirees of state & local government. The Kentucky Retirement Systems now wants to "study" the "sale" based on the hiked price, some unaccounted for personal property, & a $28,000 real estate commission. The seller, Caroline Bevins-Taylor, says she told the agency how much she would sell it for, and the agency agreed. However, no contract or bill of sale could be obtained with the details of the aparent transaction. If no contract exists, then it will be difficult to know what, if anything, has actually taken place. Not to mention, a church spokesman says the property had been listed for sale for quite some time when Ms. Bevins-Taylor purchased it producing the logical conclusion that the agency, had it wanted to, could have purchased the property only seven or eight weeks earlier for nearly $300,000 less than it paid.
As the facts roll in, I'll be sure to follow, but at this point, I'm scratching my head as what case the agency can make no matter how much "studying" they undertake. First, find out if a contract even exists, and then go from there. If one does exist, I don't see how that makes the sale any less viable. Undoubtedly, it will be interesting to see where the blame falls.
As the facts roll in, I'll be sure to follow, but at this point, I'm scratching my head as what case the agency can make no matter how much "studying" they undertake. First, find out if a contract even exists, and then go from there. If one does exist, I don't see how that makes the sale any less viable. Undoubtedly, it will be interesting to see where the blame falls.
90 More "High Tech, High Wage" Jobs Hopeful for Louisville
The expansion of BAE Systems, a defense plant that would make gun magazines, could mean 90 more jobs for Louisville according to this C-J blip. The plant would be built near River Road & Zorn Avenue on the Ohio River. These jobs will average more than $47,000 per worker per year.
Wednesday, May 24, 2006
Just Don't Sell the Beast!
Kings Island, a favorite amusement park in the Ohio Valley region, sold packaged with four other parks for $1.24 Billion. I only hope the Cincinnati-based park keeps its healthy supply of coasters!
National Housing Market News
The numbers are in on the national real estate market's 1st Quarter. As this Biz Journal article states, the thought of a "national" real estate market is a bit absurd. Undoubtedly, the craziness of the past few years in places like Las Vegas, Phoenix, & Boston is clearly sobering, however, much of the country's local real estate markets aren't likely to take a hit.
My research of three zip codes here in Louisville in the 1st Quarter of '06 vs. that of '05 is in the archives of this blog, and I am looking forward to looking at the 2nd, 3rd, & 4th Quarter numbers as they become available.
My own perception of the local market is that there are fewer buyers in the market at this time compared to last year. Inventory nearly everywhere appears to be up. Sale prices, however, remain strong. This news puts a premium on pricing accuracy. It will also be interesting to see if some of those priced out of housing in the former boom markets might look to relocate to area that never did really boom.
My research of three zip codes here in Louisville in the 1st Quarter of '06 vs. that of '05 is in the archives of this blog, and I am looking forward to looking at the 2nd, 3rd, & 4th Quarter numbers as they become available.
My own perception of the local market is that there are fewer buyers in the market at this time compared to last year. Inventory nearly everywhere appears to be up. Sale prices, however, remain strong. This news puts a premium on pricing accuracy. It will also be interesting to see if some of those priced out of housing in the former boom markets might look to relocate to area that never did really boom.
Big Ticket Homes Immune to Bubble Talk?
Well, not really, but it is an interesting occurence nonetheless:
The Multimillion $ Market is Still Hot, Hot, Hot(May 22, 2006) --
Despite a cooling real estate market, one segment that remains red hot is the multimillion-dollar market.
In San Francisco, 18 homes in that range sold in the first quarter, up from 15 in the same period last year, a DataQuick analysis shows.
In Palm Beach, Fla., 10 homes sold for $5 million or more in the first quarter, up from eight last year. And in Jackson, Wyo., 21 homes, up from 17, sold for more than $3 million, according to Jackson Hole Real Estate and Appraisal.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at forecasting firm Moody's Economy.com, says the segment of high-end buyers "won't be immune from the unfolding travails of the rest of the market, but it will weather those difficulties much better than it has historically."
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Troy McMullen (05/19/2006)
The Multimillion $ Market is Still Hot, Hot, Hot(May 22, 2006) --
Despite a cooling real estate market, one segment that remains red hot is the multimillion-dollar market.
In San Francisco, 18 homes in that range sold in the first quarter, up from 15 in the same period last year, a DataQuick analysis shows.
In Palm Beach, Fla., 10 homes sold for $5 million or more in the first quarter, up from eight last year. And in Jackson, Wyo., 21 homes, up from 17, sold for more than $3 million, according to Jackson Hole Real Estate and Appraisal.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at forecasting firm Moody's Economy.com, says the segment of high-end buyers "won't be immune from the unfolding travails of the rest of the market, but it will weather those difficulties much better than it has historically."
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Troy McMullen (05/19/2006)
Tuesday, May 23, 2006
OK, All Bets Are Off!
My Preakness prediction was a bit off as these results will surely attest. Diabolical was last! Bernardini looked incredible.
Of course, the story that has created the biggest noise is Barbaro's status. After breaking his ankle in two places, his future as a race horse is not viable & even his stallion retirement is in doubt. It made me sick to see the video replays of him running awkwardly as his hoof appeared to be almost detached & rubbery as Edgar Prado attempted to pull him back.
I told friends of mine that I couldn't see Barbaro losing unless something weird happened, and Barbaro's premature start & subsequent injury certainly qualify. I hope he makes it.
Of course, the story that has created the biggest noise is Barbaro's status. After breaking his ankle in two places, his future as a race horse is not viable & even his stallion retirement is in doubt. It made me sick to see the video replays of him running awkwardly as his hoof appeared to be almost detached & rubbery as Edgar Prado attempted to pull him back.
I told friends of mine that I couldn't see Barbaro losing unless something weird happened, and Barbaro's premature start & subsequent injury certainly qualify. I hope he makes it.
Friday, May 19, 2006
The Second Jewel of the Triple Crown
Well, here we are two weeks after Barbaro ran away with the Derby in Louisville against a field of 20 horses. It's Preakness Eve, so what's the story looking like in Baltimore? Barbaro will have a lot more room to operate since the Preakness field features only nine horses. The Kentucky Derby champ drew Post # 6 smack dab in between #5, Brother Derek, & #7, sweetnorthernsaint, which are the two horses probably most capable of beating the favorite. Brother Derek & sweetnorthernsaint ran 4th & 7th, respectively, in the Derby. I can't imagine how Barbaro loses the Preakness, but why bet on him? He's likely to be even money or worse, so I'm going to go with Diabolical for no other reason than he's a beefy 30-1 payoff.
Wednesday, May 17, 2006
Time for Some Sanity
I know it probably reads as though I'm desperately trying to dissuade the entire populace that a real, live real estate bubble is upon us, but thanks to Shawn Tully of Fortune Magazine/CNNMoney, a portrait of clarity does exist on this bubble madness. The following excerpt is probably one of the more important & leased disclosed statement ever regarding the so-called bubble:
"In either case, many individual homeowners have nothing to worry about:
They can simply stay put and ride out the cycle. The only thing they'll lose
is
the opportunity to brag about their paper profits. And in some places,
appreciation has been so sharp that a seller could see prices plunge 30
percent
and still make a hefty gain.
The real losers will be those
who bought recently at inflated prices and
are forced to sell, usually
because they're taking a job in another city or
can't make the payments when
their adjustable mortgage rate jumps. And
speculators who bought overpriced
condos in hope of a quick killing are going to
get hosed."
Economy Mixed?
I don't feel qualified to comment on much found in this C-J column except the part about...you guessed it...housing. It's not necessarily a bad thing that April housing starts for new construction are down nearly 7.5%. This is evidence that the market works. It is no wonder developers & builders are less inclined to build new when inventory is creeping up. The total number of home sales is down based on last year in some, but not all, locations across the country, which shouldn't come as a surprise either given the five consecutive years of housing sales records that preceded the decline.
There are some metros that are benefitting from the pie in the sky prices that are being asked in the "boom" markets. This should come as no surprise. Not everyone can live, nor should they want to live, on the West Coast or in other areas that saw heavy gains in the past five years. It only stands to reason that nice cities with strong economies will attract pools of buyers unwilling or incapable of purchasing in their "dream" location. Attractive affordable metros like Albuqurque, NM & Denver, CO are prime to see nice gains.
The news for Lousiville looks good as well. The recent decision by UPS to add nearly 5,000 new jobs in the coming months will certainly help to absorb a chunk of the housing inventory.
There are some metros that are benefitting from the pie in the sky prices that are being asked in the "boom" markets. This should come as no surprise. Not everyone can live, nor should they want to live, on the West Coast or in other areas that saw heavy gains in the past five years. It only stands to reason that nice cities with strong economies will attract pools of buyers unwilling or incapable of purchasing in their "dream" location. Attractive affordable metros like Albuqurque, NM & Denver, CO are prime to see nice gains.
The news for Lousiville looks good as well. The recent decision by UPS to add nearly 5,000 new jobs in the coming months will certainly help to absorb a chunk of the housing inventory.
UPS Expansion Means Business
United Parcel Service will hire around 5,000 more workers as part of its expansion in Louisville. The expansion includes adding 1,284 full-time workers as well as 3,787 part-timers. For more on the economic impact of the move, check out morethanderby contributor, Todd Earwood's take.
Tuesday, May 16, 2006
1st Quarter Numbers Nationwide
NAR: First Quarter State Existing-Home Sales Ease(May 15, 2006) --
Existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, remained historically high in the first quarter but have experienced a downtrend since hitting a record in the third quarter of last year. Even so, 26 states showed increases in sales activity from a year ago, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.
The latest report on total existing-home sales shows that the seasonally adjusted annual rate* was 6.80 million units in the first quarter, down 2.1 percent from the 6.94 million-unit level in the first quarter of 2005.
The biggest increase was in New Mexico, where existing-home sales rose 26.2 percent from the first quarter of 2005. Louisiana’s first-quarter resale pace rose 22.9 percent from a year earlier, while Montana experienced the third strongest gain, up 17.5 percent. Six other states recorded double-digit sales increases from a year ago. Twenty-one states and the District of Columbia experienced declines. Complete data for three states was not available.
David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said rising interest rates have dampened sales. “A steady rise in mortgage interest rates has slowed home sales in higher cost areas, yet job growth in some moderately priced markets is boosting sales in other areas,” he said. “The net effect is a modest decline in home sales for the nation as a whole, but sales remain historically strong and are providing a solid underlying base for the overall economy.”
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate on a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage was 6.24 percent in the first quarter, up from 6.22 percent in the fourth quarter; it was 5.76 percent in the first quarter of 2005.
NAR President Thomas M. Stevens from Vienna, Va., said the sales pattern is expected to level out. “We project home sales may soften a little further before picking up in the fourth quarter, but we’re not looking for any significant changes in the market moving forward,” said Stevens, senior vice president of NRT Inc. “This should provide stability in the market so that buyers and sellers will be on a fairly level playing field in most of the country.”
More detail is online.
Source: NAR
Existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, remained historically high in the first quarter but have experienced a downtrend since hitting a record in the third quarter of last year. Even so, 26 states showed increases in sales activity from a year ago, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.
The latest report on total existing-home sales shows that the seasonally adjusted annual rate* was 6.80 million units in the first quarter, down 2.1 percent from the 6.94 million-unit level in the first quarter of 2005.
The biggest increase was in New Mexico, where existing-home sales rose 26.2 percent from the first quarter of 2005. Louisiana’s first-quarter resale pace rose 22.9 percent from a year earlier, while Montana experienced the third strongest gain, up 17.5 percent. Six other states recorded double-digit sales increases from a year ago. Twenty-one states and the District of Columbia experienced declines. Complete data for three states was not available.
David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said rising interest rates have dampened sales. “A steady rise in mortgage interest rates has slowed home sales in higher cost areas, yet job growth in some moderately priced markets is boosting sales in other areas,” he said. “The net effect is a modest decline in home sales for the nation as a whole, but sales remain historically strong and are providing a solid underlying base for the overall economy.”
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate on a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage was 6.24 percent in the first quarter, up from 6.22 percent in the fourth quarter; it was 5.76 percent in the first quarter of 2005.
NAR President Thomas M. Stevens from Vienna, Va., said the sales pattern is expected to level out. “We project home sales may soften a little further before picking up in the fourth quarter, but we’re not looking for any significant changes in the market moving forward,” said Stevens, senior vice president of NRT Inc. “This should provide stability in the market so that buyers and sellers will be on a fairly level playing field in most of the country.”
More detail is online.
Source: NAR
Friday, May 12, 2006
Downtown: Historic Portland Home Undergoing Makeover
It's National Preservation Month, and the Squire Earick House in Louisville's Portland Neighborhood is receiving restoration. More from today's C-J here.
In Case You Missed It...
Because I sure did, Ron Schoolmeester penned a great piece on Louisville for USA Today last week. Obviously, the timing was right considering the horse race that occurred on Saturday, but the majority of the article focuses on a Louisville that appears ready to embrace a more unique identity. Highlights include comments by Lynn as well as 21c proprietors, Steve Wilson & Laura Lee Brown.
Thursday, May 11, 2006
Downtown will Welcome Bluegrassers in August
This is great news. I am interested to see what the lineup looks like for The Kentucky Bluegrass Festival. I still have some nice recordings of some of my favorite 'grassers from when this was an annual festival held on the Belvedere in the '80s. Since Louisville lost the IBMA Festival & Awards Show to Nashville, it's nice to see that large quantities of banjos & fiddles will be returning to Louisville's downtown area this August 4 & 5.
Here's yesterday's blip from Business First. Once the lineup is introduced, I'll be sure to take yet another break from posting real estate related material & post who will be playing. Would love to see Sam, Bela, and/or Del, which would not be unheard of based on the kinds of quality this particular festival used to attract.
Here's yesterday's blip from Business First. Once the lineup is introduced, I'll be sure to take yet another break from posting real estate related material & post who will be playing. Would love to see Sam, Bela, and/or Del, which would not be unheard of based on the kinds of quality this particular festival used to attract.
Tuesday, May 09, 2006
Back to Work: Proposed Arena Will Push Luxury Box Limits
According to this morning's C-J, U of L's downtown arena would house up to 72 luxury suite boxes. It would be the most luxury suites offered for lease by any arena in the country that does not also feature a professional tenant. The probable price: $75,000-$80,000! I'll take two.
Sunday, May 07, 2006
Barbaro Victorious in Derby
OK, so I didn't pick the winner yesterday, nor did I have the trifecta. My horse, Jazil, began slowly just as I expected, and rallied to tie for fourth. Barbaro paid $14.20, $8.00, & $6.00, while 2nd place longshot Bluegrass Cat paid a hefty $28.40 & $15.40, and 3rd place Steppenwolfer paid $7.80 for the Show.
Next is the Preakness in two weeks. Can't wait.
Next is the Preakness in two weeks. Can't wait.
Friday, May 05, 2006
Break from Real Estate: Derby
So who do you like? According to the "experts", this year's Kentucky Derby field is rich in talent. Probably best to pick based on your favorit name. There's Sinister Minister & sweetnorthernsaint, and even Lawyer Ron to mediate between the two. Personally, I like Jazil. He's a closer, and would have benefitted from extra distance in the Wood Memorial when he finished 2nd after a furious rally. Churchill offers him that extra, so my money's on him ($2 across the board just to show you how sure I am).
Good Luck!
Good Luck!
Thursday, May 04, 2006
1st Quarter High Active Prices
1st Quarter 2006 Low Active Prices
1st Quarter 2006 Active Median Home Prices
1st Quarter 2006 High Pending Sale Prices
Current high pending sale price in 40205 is $1,875,000. That's ours!
Current high pending sale price in 40206 is $1,175,000
Current high pending sale in 40207 is $1,427,500
1st Quarter Low Pending Sales
1st Quarter Median Pending Home Sales
1st Quarter High Home Sales: 2005 vs. 2006
1st Quarter 2006 high sale price in 40205 sold for $688,302
1st quarter 2005 high sale price in 40205 sold for $825,000
1st Quarter 2006 high sale price in 40206 sold for $510,000
1st Quarter 2005 high sale price in 40206 sold for $420,000
1st Quarter 2006 high sale price in 40207 sold for $675,000
1st Quarter 2005 sale price in 40207 sold for $850,000
Wednesday, May 03, 2006
1st Quarter Low Home Sales: 2005 vs. 2006
1st Quarter Low sale price 2006 in 40205 sold for $110,000
1st quarter Low sale price 2005 in 40205 sold for $101,500
1st Quarter Low sale price 2006 in 40206 sold for $68,800
1st Quarter Low sale price 2005 in 40206 sold for $21,600 (!)
1st Quarter Low sale price 2006 in 40207 sold for $129,000
1st Quarter Low sale price 2005 in 40207 sold for $136,000
Tuesday, May 02, 2006
1st Quarter Median Home Sales: 2005 vs. 2006
1st Quarter Median sale price 2005 in 40205 zip sold for $$186,250
1st Quarter Median sale price 2006 in 40205 zip sold for $190,000
1st Quarter Median sale price 2005 in 40206 zip sold for $165,500
1st Quarter Median sale price 2006 in 40206 zip sold for $174,750
1st Quarter Median sale price 2005 in 40207 zip sold for $208,450
1st Quarter Median sale price 2006 in 40207 sold for $198,000
So How are We Doing?: 1st Quarter Numbers
With all the housing bubble talk, I thought I'd take a look at a couple of areas in the Louisville market to see how the so-called bubble is affecting our local market. For examination, I've chosen three traditional zip codes that, if there is a bubble, it is most likely to affect these areas. The zip codes: 40205 (Highlands/Douglass Loop Area), 40206 (Crescent Hill), 40207 (St. Matthews/Brownsboro Rd.).
Here's what I found:
I looked at the first quarter of 2005 for total sales, average sale price, median sale price, low sale price, high sale price, and average days on market for the three zip codes. Then I did the same for the first quarter 2006. I then looked at current active inventory & pending sales.
40205: 1st quarter 2005
Sales: 70
Avg Sale Price: $224,406
Median: $186,250
Low: $101,500
High: $825,000
Avg DOM: 59
40205: 1st quarter 2006
Sales: 67
Average Sale Price: $209,011
Median: $190,000
Low: $110,000
High: $688,302
Avg DOM: 59
40205: Active Inventory
Total: 108
Avg Asking: $279,332
Median Asking: $251,000
Low Asking: $119,900
High Asking: $739,000*
40205: PENDING Sales
Total: 42
Average Price: $320,016
Median Price: $239,900
Low: $110,000
High: $1,875,000
40206: 1st quarter 2005
Sales: 42
Avg Sale Price: $188,919
Median Sale Price: $165,500
Low: $21,600
High: $420,000
Avg DOM: 56
40206: 1st quarter 2006
Sales: 28
Average Sale Price: $183,932
Median: $174,750
Low: $68,800
High: $510,000
Avg DOM: 87
40206: Active Inventory
Total: 84
Avg Asking: $320,522
Median Asking: $219,900
Low: $79,400
High: $2,200,000
40206: PENDING Sales
Total: 13
Average Price: $280,223
Median Price: $205,900
Low: $89,500
High: $1,175,000
40207: 1st quarter 2005
Sales: 93
Avg Sale Price: $271,999
Median Sale Price: $208,450
Low: $136,000
High: $850,000
Avg DOM: 56
40207: 1st quarter 2006
Sales: 73
Average Sale Price: $220,741
Median Sale Price: $198,000
Low: $129,000
High: $675,000
Avg. DOM: 71
40207: Active Inventory
Total: 137
Avg Asking: $365,555
Median Asking: $262,500
Low: $115,000
High: $1,975,000
40207: PENDING Sales
Total: 53
Average Price: $351,774
Median Price: $224,950
Low: $139,500
High: $1,427,500
*=There is a large one-of-a-kind estate home currently on the market in this zip for $7,500,000, but in order to keep from skewing the data too terribly, I did not include it.
Pending sales appear encouraging with regard to average price figures which are sure to drop some upon closing, but there's definitely a bit of a slow down. I'll be following up with a 2nd quarter update on these zips as well to see where we stand at mid-summer. My initial reaction is that there are less motivated buyers in the market at this time. Some of that is undoubtedly due to interest rate increases & as a reation to much of the negative publicity the housing market is receiving. There's no question that the national housing market is softening & has been for a few months. It will be interesting to see how low to mid-level markets fair as we head into peak buying time. Also, I'll be posting a few pictures of some of the houses included in this sample.
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